House Mountain Partners


China at the Tipping Point

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a PDF version of this note, please click here.



Question: What is China’s #1 export?

Answer: Deflation

The correct answer to the question above is electronic equipment ($571 billion USD worth according to the CIA Factbook), however the PBOC yesterday made a compelling case for replacing electronic equipment with deflation as banking officials in the country devalued the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) by almost 2%.

Is the Fed Really Out of Patience?

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)


For a PDF copy of this note, please click here


It would appear that Chair Yellen’s press conference yesterday in the set the stage for a Fed Funds rate increase in June or September of this year. We remain unconvinced.

 It was interesting to note how financial markets reacted to the removal of a single word (patience) from the Fed’s most recent statement. The Dow, gold, and oil all roared higher and seemingly (for the moment anyway) forgot about the increasingly disappointing economic data in the US including housing starts, retail sales, and industrial production. Export growth also slowed, and you can thank the strong US Dollar for that.

Are the Metals Decoupling from China?

Chris Berry

By Chris Berry

  • With the commodity super cycle changing its complexion and looking for direction, we continue to believe that the metals markets don't have the "wind at their backs" anymore.
  •  It has been surprising to see many metals prices either bottom or shoot higher in the face of a slowing China and a sluggish global economy haunted by the specter of deflation.
  • Can this upward bias in select metals prices continue given this backdrop?
  • We continue to argue for SELECTIVITY amongst metals and companies as a crucial component of your investment selection until the next leg up of the cycle begins.


We're Still at a Bottom…But for How Long?

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