Disruptive Discoveries Journal

batteries

China Outflanks Freeport To Further Consolidate The Lithium Ion Battery Business

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a PDF version of this note, please click here.

 

 

Earlier this week, the deal in which China Molybdenum Co. (603993:SHA) agreed to pay Freeport McMoRan (FCX:NYSE) $2.65 billion for FCX’s African copper assets reaffirms our view that asset shedding from the FCX project portfolio must continue (See the press release here).

FCX, with a $13B market capitalization, made a bad bet in diversifying into the oil business at the cyclical peak and now must reckon with roughly $20B in debt on their balance sheet. The debt maturity profile of the company is shown below:

Another Way to Think About Lithium - The Separator Business

Chris Berry1 Comment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

 For a PDF copy of this note, please click here.  

 

 

We’ve just returned from PDAC and lithium is all the rage. The specialty chemical’s parabolic price spike has altered the landscape and as I predicted late last year, a crop of juniors has flocked to the space. While this is dangerous and may serve to confuse investors, it doesn’t negate the fact that the lithium demand story is real.

Given the supply tightness, elevated prices for lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are going to remain a fact of life for perhaps the next 18 months. The recent binding off-take agreement Galaxy Resources (GXY:ASX) signed for 60,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate at US $600/t (FOB) with 50% of the total order value paid up front in cash ($18 million) is only the latest exciting example of a lithium market taking shape.

All of this brings us back, however, to a question we’ve discussed publicly: as the lithium mining space continues to evolve, how do you play lithium outside of investing in the miners? 

Is it Different This Time? - Separating Hype from Reality in the Lithium Ion Boom

Chris BerryComment

Here is the link for my recent remarks at PDAC regarding how to interpret the lithium market. The presentation is "picture heavy" as I generally hate powerpoint and minimize words in favor of images.

Nonetheless, reach out to me if you'd like a deeper discussion on these issues.

The presentation looks at the reasons why the lithium ion battery is increasingly important in our daily lives and offers a few thoughts on what to look for and avoid as you start to understand an increasingly interesting and pivotal space. 

The Key To The Way Forward In The Mining Sector

Chris Berry1 Comment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

 

For a PDF version of this note, please click here.  

 

·       The mining sector remains challenged by multiple headwinds including a lack of investment, currency headwinds, slower productivity, excess capacity, and deficient global demand.

·       Debt overhangs and slowing emerging markets – specifically China – appear to be the culprits behind slack demand. These forces must be reckoned with.

·       Longer-term, however, innovation, sustainability, and urbanization are legitimate drivers of growth and help promulgate “good” deflation which enhances productivity and can drive returns.

·       This note examines these phenomena and which sector(s) of the mining industry may benefit.

 

Groundhog Day

After three-plus years of a dismal mining investment environment and the potential for it to continue for some time, a number of questions arise from the soul searching many of us have done to try and make sense of this. According to Bloomberg, the value of the TSXV has fallen from its peak by almost 72%. This market environment necessitates a different method of thinking and evaluation about publicly traded mining companies. The good news is that it appears that many metals prices have bottomed, though this doesn’t mean that the cycle has definitively turned. The bad news is that the global economy still appears to be struggling with excess capacity AND muted demand. China, the seemingly endless engine of metals demand is unquestionably altering its paradigm for economic growth from one of infrastructure build out and exports to one more focused on internal consumption. With China’s debt to GDP ratio of 282% according to McKinsey, this move to a new growth model is absolutely necessary to maintain a sustainable growth rate, but there is no overnight fix to achieve this type of change. The success of this transition won’t be known for years, though the effects are already being felt.

What's Not Being Said Amidst the Lithium Ion Battery Hype (Hint: It's a Double Edged Sword)

Chris Berry1 Comment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

 

For a PDF copy of this note, please click here

 

Amid the Tesla-infused hype surrounding batteries a number of truths have become evident.

 First, battery costs are falling – fast. The overall cost of a lithium ion battery has fallen by over 90% since its commercial introduction in 1990 and the CAGR in the price decrease in recent years per kilowatt hour (kWh) is roughly 14%. Should this rate of decline continue, electric vehicles should be able to compete on total cost of ownership (TCO) with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles within five years. 

Are Electric Vehicles About to Jump The Shark?

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a PDF version of this note, please click here

 

As if vehicle electrification needed any more hype, Apple Inc’s. (AAPL:NASDAQ) rumored move towards producing its own EV by 2020 may have been the first sign that the whole idea of EVs has “jumped the shark.” For those of you unaware of this term, it refers to the 1970’s sitcom Happy Days when Fonzie was waterskiing and literally jumped over a shark. Happy Days was never the same and the show never quite recovered from this stunt to win viewers.

The rumors leaked last week about AAPL secretly working on developing its own EV have fanned intense speculation about how this would be accomplished. With $170 billion in cash on its balance sheet, obviously hiring the talent and research and development are non-issues. 

 

Tesla Sparks More Questions Than Answers

Chris Berry1 Comment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a PDF of this note, please click here.

 

Tesla Motors (TSLA:NASDAQ) released Q4 and 2014 full year earnings last night and the results were disappointing. The company missed expectations on just about every conceivable metric one would use to judge success including earnings, deliveries, and revenues. Although disappointing, TSLA should still likely be viewed through a longer-term lens than its competitors as the company is still arguably in its early growth phase and isn’t yet a mature operating entity.

While the numbers we all tend to focus on were down, what was perhaps more concerning were the statements made by Mr. Musk and his team on the call. They include: 

·         Mr. Musks’ statement that in ten years TSLA could have a market cap that equaled that of Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ). AAPL’s current market cap of US $740 billion would give TSLA a share price of approximately $5,920 per share based on TSLA’s current share count. When was the last time you hear of a company selling what is effectively a commodity (cars) with that sort of valuation and share price?

Tesla Motors (TSLA:NASDAQ) - On The Verge of Changing Everything, But Questions Remain

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry

 

Charging Ahead

Last week, TSLA released its Q2 2014 earnings. As a proponent of disruptive business models and the raw materials necessary to enable the upheaval, I always listen with rapt attention. The earnings of $0.11 per share on net income of $16 million (non-GAAP), and a loss of $0.50 per share on net income of $62 million (GAAP) were enough to satisfy the market and after a brief dip in after hours trading, the share price rebounded strongly.

As is the case with many of the early-stage companies I follow, I’m more interested in production metrics, though revenue here is accelerating, indicating that TSLA is having no problem selling its cars. I’m willing to tolerate negative earnings and cash flow as long as the company is investing in future growth and increasing sales.

This is clearly the case with TSLA which reported record production (8,763 Model S) and deliveries (7,579 Model S) in Q2 and is on track for more than 35,000 deliveries in 2014 with the stated goal of 100,000 deliveries by the end of 2015. Additionally, with a Cap Ex guidance of $850 million, TSLA has a Cap Ex/Sales ratio of over 20% - unparalleled in the automotive business according to the FT. The next closest is Jaguar at 12%. TSLA is clearly a company in its early growth phase.

Rather than dissect the numbers here, I think it’s important to look at the main takeaways from the call and consider any questions that arise for the company as they continue on an exciting journey to revolutionize the automotive and energy storage businesses.