Disruptive Discoveries Journal

Yellen

Four Questions for 2016 - Donald Trump, Deflation, China, & Oil

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a pdf copy of this note, please click here.

 

Ed. Note: The following remarks were those I made to investor audiences during a recent bus tour in Munich, Geneva, Zurich, and Frankfurt.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for coming today and investing your most valuable asset in us, which is of course, your time. Speaking of time, what I’d like to do today is take a look back and a look forward and briefly offer some thoughts on where we’ve been in the global economy in the past year and what some of the key questions are in 2016 likely to drive the commodity and broader markets altogether.

Rather than make excuses or guesses as to why commodities continue to under perform, I’d like to examine some of our thoughts from a year ago when we were last here in Europe and see what has transpired.

Is the Fed Really Out of Patience?

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

 

For a PDF copy of this note, please click here

 

It would appear that Chair Yellen’s press conference yesterday in the set the stage for a Fed Funds rate increase in June or September of this year. We remain unconvinced.

 It was interesting to note how financial markets reacted to the removal of a single word (patience) from the Fed’s most recent statement. The Dow, gold, and oil all roared higher and seemingly (for the moment anyway) forgot about the increasingly disappointing economic data in the US including housing starts, retail sales, and industrial production. Export growth also slowed, and you can thank the strong US Dollar for that.

Is This the Turn in the Metals Markets?

Chris Berry

By Chris Berry

  

 

 

  • Precious metals roared higher yesterday.
  • This was presumably due to a confluence of events including Iraq dissolving into civil war, more unrest in the Ukraine, and Fed Chair Yellen's dovish remarks regarding keeping rates low for an extended period.
  • Lest we get too excited, base metals were left in the dust and bond yields fell precipitously.
  • These two reliable indicators of growth (and inflationary expectations) lead us to believe that what happened yesterday was either short covering or a profit taking opportunity and nothing more.

 

Plus Ca Change…..

I'll admit to being surprised at the move in gold and silver yesterday. It's almost as if people were looking for an excuse to take metals prices higher.