Though many disinflationary forces still predominate around the globe, more and more is being said about food inflation. We still believe in the primacy of food security as forces as disparate as the weather and urbanization coalesce to push the price of food upwards.
Some recent headlines reinforce this assertion:
Late last year, I highlighted phosphate as one of the critical natural resources we will focus on in 2014
- The phosphate story is the story of security of supply because much of global phosphate supply originates from geopolitically unstable regions of the world
- The key to success is secure access to low cost phosphate rock. Supply of this resource will become increasingly constrained if current consumption trends continue into the future
A Long Term Play on Food Security
With net global population set to rise due to an emerging middle class and shrinking arable farm land, a closer investment look at agricultural efficiencies and fertilizers is warranted. The essential need for fertilizers in ensuring the healthy growth of crops is not a secret, but the fertilizer story seems to have been lost in the broader critical minerals story. Many entities, NGOs, investment banks, and think tanks are projecting a global population of between 9 and 9.5 billion inhabitants by 2050. This is a 30% increase from just over 7 billion today.