Disruptive Discoveries Journal

"Forecasts" For Metals and The Global Economy In 2015

Chris BerryComment

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

 

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” 

-  Yogi Berra

 

In the time that I have been writing on the metals markets and global economy, one mainstay has always been reading the tsunami of year end research reports laying out predictions for the year ahead. Almost universally, these well-written and tirelessly researched musings all share one consistent trait: they are almost always off the mark.

Last year at this time, I was reading about the looming interest rate increases in the United States (not even close), Japan finally conquering deflation and returning to growth (fourth recession since 2008), oil prices never falling below $100 per barrel (no comment necessary), the junior mining markets turning higher (I think we’re several years from this) and electric vehicles taking a much larger piece of automotive market share (not yet, but eventually).

I don’t mean to denigrate those who make predictions as it’s a necessary part of portfolio construction. The fact that so many predictions are so spectacularly wrong I think speaks to how interconnected markets are which makes it difficult to anticipate any sort of domino effect.

That said I do enjoy reading 2015 predictions as I find it can challenge my own thinking or beliefs. With that in mind, I offer a short list of themes I have been and will continue to watch as they unfold in 2015. These ideas run the gamut from vehicle electrification to macroeconomic policies which may seem disparate, but as I said above, with the markets so interconnected, I don’t see how you can analyze one sector of the economy in a bubble. I hope I’m able to challenge your thinking.    

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